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Economist Trevor Hambayi says the K22 billion supplementary budget that President Hakainde Hichilema requested to have added to the 2022 national budget cannot be a surplus because the country is running on a deficit.

Hambayi said the country is failing to finance its own budget as most of it is being financed by debt therefore until a time when the country is able to eliminate a portion of debt; it is not possible to have a surplus.

Speaking in an interview with the Zambian Business Times-ZBT, Hambayi argued that the country is not running to a recession but there is need to make sure that the country has a growing economy by taking recognition of what is happening around the globe.

He explained that even with exceptional financial prudence, it is unlikely that the country would have surplus funds requiring approval to spend under the current economic metrics.

Hambayi added that the K173 billion 2022 budget has a provision for the country to borrow K74.2 billion (K24.5 billion domestics and K49.7 billion external) to finance part 42.8% of the 2022 budget (with K98 billion being 56.6% from coming domestic resources). Therefore, any surplus the country will generate will only reduce the proposed budget debt financing of K74.2 billion.

The Economist mentioned that the country has not been servicing its external debt liabilities since November 2020 when it defaulted on its euro bond coupon payment. As of December 2021, the country had accrued default arrears of USD 1.2 billion and if there has been prudence in resource management, these funds should be reflecting in the country’s resrves.

President Hichilema had instructed the Minister of Finance, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane to request parliament to approve a supplementary budget of K22 billion arising from financial prudence. Parliament approved the supplementary budget which brought the 2022 national budget to K195 billion.

The Head of State said the extra-generated revenue would be used to increase funding towards fertiliser support programme, dismantle arrears for suppliers and contractors, payment of retirees and more road construction.

He noted that it was not debt but a surplus as the country has resources and what was missing was prudent management of resources adding that the resources have been allocated to benefit the citizens.

 

 

 

Economist Trevor Hambayi says the K22 billion

ZANACO bank Head of Economic Research Dr. Patrick Chileshe has cautioned that a strong kwacha has both positive and negative effects on the economy, stating that exporters for instance risk facing a drop in demand and sales.

Dr. Chileshe told the Zambian Business Times – ZBT that on the positive side, the cost of imported items or products will be relatively cheaper for Zambians but on the negative side, an appreciated currency makes Zambian produced items more expensive to foreigners and that should discourage them from importing from Zambia.

“We do import quite a lot of clothing, a lot of our processed foods, what that implies is that a stronger Kwacha would imply that these goods are going to be relatively cheaper”, he said.

Dr. Chileshe however said a strong kwacha could have a negative consequence on the country’s trade balance with other countries and will have a negative effect on the performance of the manufacturing sector-export sector.

“It is also going to have a bigger impact on the agriculture sector especially the those farmers that deal in the export of exotic products such as soybean, wheat, rose flowers and other cash crops which are generally traded in the US dollar, so it will have that negative impact on [some members] the farming community”, he said.

The Kwacha has continued to gain against major convertible currencies and according to sobank’s daily indicative rates, the dollar is being sold at K16.12 and buying at K15.82 as of 3 August 2022.

Zambia National Commercial Bank-ZANACO says its projections suggest that the kwacha will end the year 2022 trading in the range of K15.60-K15.80 to the United States dollar.

The Bank’s Head of Economic Research Dr. Patrick Chileshe said it is difficult to tell the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on a currency but given the current conditions prevailing in the market, the country will experience a stable currency.

Dr. Chileshe told ZBT that there is a risk that if the United States of America (USA) continues to tighten monetary policy, there will be a flight to safety for most international investor funds and that should have a negative impact on the favourable trend in terms of the Kwacha trading against the dollar.

When asked to comment on what is behind the current gains the Kwacha is posting, Dr. Chileshe explained that the performance of the kwacha this week is largely due to the positive sentiments associated with the creditor committee’s agreement that they will give guarantees to Zambia as well as provide further relief in terms of supporting the government to restructure its debt.

He added that this development should be able to make government access the $1.4 billion bailout package, which is a three year extended credit facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

ZANACO bank Head of Economic Research Dr. Patrick

ZAMPALM General Manager David Subakanya has urged more local Zambian farmers to venture into growing of palm oil trees that are used for extraction of palm oil as there is market for the product as well as competitive prices for the produce.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with the Zambian Business Times –ZBT, ZAMPALM General Manger said over the years, Zambia has been importing the crude palm oil as there are less farmers engaging in this type of farming when there is an existing deficit.

He said this is so because what is being produced is not yet reached even half of the required threshold where you can stop importing adding that the quantities are still low. Subakanya said farmers should therefore consider taking advantage and start growing the trees to get income as well as contribute to cutting on the importation of crude palm oil.

He said Palm oil has a lot of opportunities as it’s extracted from a very productive crop, it offers a far greater yield at a lower cost of production than other vegetable oils.

The Zampalm GM further golf ZBT that what is good about this type of farming is in compliance with the environmental necessities as instead of cutting trees you plant more trees. The harvest is also on a continued basis as opposed to annual planting when compared to other Agro production processes.

Located in Kanchiya District of Muchinga Province, ZAMPALM farm has started a journey to reduce crude palm oil importation as they are producing about 3,900 litters and have the target of hitting 20, 000 liters to contribute to about 80% import substitution of the crude palm oil.

Subakanya told ZBT that the price of crude palm oil is market determined, it’s also determined by the world demand, which should encourage more farmers to venture into this kind of farming and create business opportunities and the much needed  jobs in the country.

ZAMPALM General Manager David Subakanya has urged

The Zambia Coffee Growers Association – ZCGA has disclosed that the country’s coffee production stands at only about 4, 200 metric tonnes for the current season with only six (6) commercial farmers actively growing coffee in the country.

Association Chief Executive Officer Joseph Taguma said the six large-scale farmers currently growing coffee are based in Lusaka, Southern, Northern, Central and Copperbelt provinces adding that the coffee is mainly exported to Japan, the United States of America (USA) and Europe, with some of it locally consumed.

Speaking in an interview with the Zambian Business Times-ZBT, Taguma said only a few people are growing coffee because the country does not have long-term finance for pre-crop agriculture adding that a lot is involved in coffee production.

Taguma said one of the reasons most people in Zambia have not ventured into coffee production is because it is capital intensive and there are no attractive financing packages to attract new growers in the banking and financial services in Zambia.

He added that the prices of coffee on the export market depend on the quality of the crop but on average, one metric ton of coffee is fetching around $3,500. The country has what it takes in terms of the climatic and weather requirements.

Moreover, the existing commercial farms have not successfully rolled out extensive outgrower schemes to attract local farmers to grow more coffee. This further contributes to the crop not getting more hectarage of cultivation.

Africa has notable coffee exports with 2021 exports valued at about US$2.5 billion. Ethiopia is the leading exporter and earned about $1.2 billion, followed by Uganda with exports of $600 million in 2021. Zambia’s neighbour Tanzania as well as Kenya are also important coffee producers.

The Zambia Coffee Growers Association - ZCGA

The governing United Party For National Development –UPND Spokesperson Cornelius Mweetwa has confirmed that the construction of FTJ Luapula University together with a host of other Chinese funded projects were cancelled or postponed because some of them were overpriced.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with the Zambian Business Times –ZBT, UPND Spokesperson said all the projects that were set aside were either overpriced or there was no readily available funding for such projects as continuing to subsist would cost the government more money.

He alleged that in the previous government, projects were overpriced in many instances and that is why government is strict on re-negotiating on the already existing projects to save more funds.

And a UPND insider who asked for their name to be withheld told ZBT that the FTJ University project was grossly overpriced. They stated that if one looks at University of Lusaka – UNILUS new campus, it was built at $20 million funding but FTJ university was contracted at over $200 million. But the structures that were to be constructed were questionable in terms of pricing.

Meanwhile, Mweetwa who is also Southern Province Minister under the new dawn government explained that if the government had continued sustaining these contracts on the ground when there is no money to complete and deliver the works within the given time, the contractors were going to claim payments for standing time.

He also indicated that the projects were not cancelled but postponed, stating that what was cancelled was funding to projects – where there was no readily available funding to ensure that they don’t continue pending thereby escalating the contract price.

“Some of the projects were deemed overpriced and were postponed so that they could be re-negotiated in the same way the Lusaka Ndola dual carriage way was cancelled and re-negotiated.” He stated.

Mweetwa further told ZBT that going forward, contracts will not be entered into simply because there is a requirement for a particular project or building, but they will only be entered when there is available funding.

He indicated that this new process will ensure that the contract sum on the contract remains the amount which should be paid unlike the current situation when there is no money and the contractor keeps on raising the contract sum citing lapse of time and devaluation of the contract sum. Mweetwa re-affirmed that government will only resume the contract once it have sourced the money.

The governing United Party For National Development

The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority Managing Director – MD has disclosed that the railway company is capable of becoming a cost effective and main the transporter of fuel during the closure of the Indeni Refinery plant.

Speaking in an Exclusive interview with the Zambian Business Times –ZBT, TAZARA Managing Director Bruno Chingandu said if capacitated, TAZARA can become a cost effective and the main transporter of fuel during the closure of indeni.

He said the gains from using the railway compared to road are enormous as the railways present many social and economic benefits. While the railway may not deliver door to door, the rates are generally cheaper than the trucks.

He explained that TAZARA has the advantage of economies of scales as it can move equivalent to 30 tanks in one train load. “It therefore saves roads from damage by taking away heavy and bulky cargo from the roads hence saving the governments funds in repair of damaged roads, contributes to reduction of road carnage.”

TAZARA Managing Director added that trains also take shorter periods than the trucks at the border thereby reducing delivery time and hence costs. He told ZBT that TAZARA has in place a revitalization plan that has been approved by the Board of Directors and awaits final approval by the Council of Ministers.

Chingandu explained that in the current capacity, TAZARA and Zambia railways can move about 10,000 liters per month and have in the past demonstrated the ability to move fuel to Zambia within the service level agreements.

He said what is needed is sufficient investment in rolling stock TAZARA in order to make it main transporter of fuel. About $560 million is needed to be invested to make the railway company capable of moving the country’s total requirements.

However said, if it is the national policy to move fuel by railway, the private sector or indeed the shareholding governments (Zambia & Tanzania) could invest in some rolling stock to enable the railways to move more of the products.

The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority Managing Director -

The Timber Producers Association of Zambia-TPAZ says it will establish timber auction floors in all the 10 provinces of the country next month to enhance the marketing and price discovery of timber in Zambia.

Association President Charles Masange said the association has made progress towards the establishment of timber auction floors and the auction floors will open once producers whose licenses expired are renewed, adding that those with licenses will then only sell timber through the auction floors.

Speaking in an interview with the Zambian Business Times-ZBT, Masange said the auction floor would address challenges to do with the middlemen, adding that the members of the association are unable to penetrate China and other countries because of the middlemen who are making more money, which the timber producers should be making.

Masange explained that once the auction floors are established, every buyer will have to bid for the right price before taking timber out of the country which will not only benefit the timber producers but the country as well.

“The export market has been full of challenges all along, that’s why we have come up with the establishment of the timber auction floor in every province and that’s what will be implemented immediately the licenses open. It will address the challenges of middlemen who are making five times the price that we are supposed to get from our timber”, he said.

He noted that the current situation does not benefit the members of the association or the country as the buyer of the timber dictates the price, which should not be the case.

TPAZ President mentioned that government was supposed to issue timber licenses in the first week of August this year but it has extended the evaluation process of the issuance of licenses to 24 August 2022 in order to ensure it is done thoroughly and there is transparency and ensure equitable distribution of resources.

The Timber Producers Association of Zambia-TPAZ says

An energy expert has questioned the excitement and infatuation by power utility ZESCO to export electricity when only 30% of Zambians are connected to the national grid and have access to electricity.

Ideally, one would expect that the initial aim would be to get more citizens connected and have access to electricity via the national grid before thinking of exports, but there seems to be more focus on exporting and little to no mention on targets to increase local citizens connection and access to power from the national grid.

The energy expert  disclosed that about 70% of the population of Zambia have no access to the national grid and only about 30% are connected.  According to the Energy Minister Peter Kapala, Zambia is expected to export 180 MW to Namibia and further 100 MW to Zimbabwe following the enhanced generation capacity of 1,156mw.

ZESCO Managing Director Victor Mapani said currently the installed national generation capacity stands at 3,456.8MW against a peak national demand of approximately 2,300MW, giving the country an excess production of over 1,000 MW.

Speaking in an interview with the Zambian Business Times – ZBT, Energy expert Bornface Zulu said the exporting of electricity is more playing to the political side of things rather than a technical aspect, they are not putting Zambia and Zambian citizens first as a priority because this means that they are comfortable with what they are producing and whatever number or percentage of citizens that they are giving electricity to.

Zulu said Government should explain what percentage and cost is the country doing this, what is the money coming in as foreign exchange etc used for, is it just for paying workers or maintenance of system.

“The population is growing and there is a huge demand on the local market already. The National grid only supply the electricity to 30% of the population when the other 70% have not had access to electricity.” This should be prioritized as access to electricity is part of development, He said.

He observed that there is already a shortage within the local system, since connection and coverage has not been optimized, there is need to extend the grid to cover the other other 70% of Zambians who are not on the grid. Will Zambia still have a surplus if the other 70% of the population is connected to the grid? or will the country linger back  in darkness or load shedding?

He however said exporting of power is a good for the country as it brings improved bilateral relations by selling the power to neighbours but it will be very much better to prioritise our very own local people, our citizens and local businesses in Zambia before we concentrate on exports.

An energy expert has questioned the excitement

The Ministry of Science and Technology has disclosed that the commencement of operation for Zambia’s 4th mobile network operator which had been extended to 30th June 2022 as earlier announced by ZICTA for Beeline Telecoms has been further extended to January 2023.

This is a follows an earlier article published by the Zambian Business Times –ZBT, where the Zambia Consumer Association – ZACA expressed concern over the continued delay and soft stance by state ICT regulator ZICTA to give Zambian consumers a  4th mobile phone operator which has now by passed the expected timelines.

Speaking in an exclusive interview during an ongoing Agriculture and Commercial show, Ministry of Technology Permanent Secretary Brilliant Habeenzu said Beeline stated to ZICTA that they were not going to make the first call according to the initial time table due to a number of reasons.

He said according to the information the ministry received from ZICTA, Beeline attributed among other challenges associated with the COVID 19 pandemic. He said ZICTA – ICT the regulator understood the circumstances hence revising the date for commencement of operation.

Habeenzu could however not tell the actual revised date of January when Beeline is expected to make the first call. Efforts to engage Beeline directly proved futile as the company contact details or physical set up office could not be found by ZBT.

The Zambia Information and Communication Technology Authority – ZICTA – had in 2021 indicated that it had granted a local firm Beeline Telecom Limited a license to commence mobile phone operations in the country within the period of 6 months. This timeline was extended and a new deadline was given to Beeline to commence operations by 30th June 2022, and this has also not materialized.

Habeenzu was certain that ZICTA analysed the situation and had a lot of issues which they considered before arriving to that extension stating that ZICTA was in a better position to give more details. But consumers in zambia have been calling for the market to have more options but the country has failed to attract credible global operators.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has

A mining expert has warned government to desist from allowing politicians or politically connected persons with vested and usually short term interests to undertake negotiations for the big deals with large mining companies to guard the country’s long term majority interests.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with the Zambian Business Times –ZBT, Mining expert Edward Simukonda said he find the act very dangerous as most of the politicians that seat on the boards have totally no clue on what is happening in the mining sector and usually focus on extracting personal or political party interests.

Simukonda has since advised that it is best for government to have a team of technocrats, mining Engineers, geologist, mineralogist etc. and only allow one or two politicians to be part of the team to negotiate the deals.

The Mining expert said having a team of technocrats is better as these are the people who understand the business and know exactly what to do. He added that having a team of independent technocrats will ensure that the mining industry grows in the country.

The Mines and Minerals Development Minister Paul Kabuswe recently said government could not avoid but speculate that the deal between Mopani Copper Mines and Glencore was made in bad faith because it has left the mining giant choking. Kabuswe said Zambia was concerned about Glencore’s damaged reputation and would therefore probe its deal with Mopani.

The Copperbelt Province remains subdued after the two major mining firms – Mopani Copper Mines and Konkola Copper Mines have not been adequately recapitalized to meet their financial operational requirements. No short to medium term operational optimization plans have been put in place to at least boost production in the near term.

Mopani needs about $300 million but parent company ZCCM IH has not come through to fully recapitalize the mine and enable the local management team prove or otherwise that they can run the mine profitably without bringing in an equity partner. The option of sourcing equity from Zambians via Lusaka Securities Exchange – LuSE has not even come up for unknown reasons.

A mining expert has warned government to