We are now deep into the political season, with August 12 elections date fast approaching.
Realistic candidates and political parties taking part should by now make up their minds on either to cut their losses or increase their momentum. To endorse other candidates or parties and get off the crowded Zambian political field to give space to the real contenders.
Some candidates by now, from Presidential, Parliamentary and local government are feeling the pressure, are getting that inevitable deep seated feeling or sense that they are headed for a defeat.
Others are catching momentum, catching the wind in the sails and sprinting to the finishing line of August 12 general elections when the voters will merely be confirming them as winner.
Despite this gift to humanity for inner feelings and deep reasoning, some candidates despite sensing defeat, are rather scheming on how to cheat or manipulate electorates or the electoral system.
Others are convincing themselves that they are still going ahead with the polls for strategic purposes, gunning for the future 2026 general elections. Whether this is wise or downright naivety will only be known in the near future.
While for others, it’s a fight to the death, they are already too invested to back down even when the signal is clear that they are more likely to lose than to win. Their chances are below 50%. But this is the world we live in today, were common sense can completely escape from one’s mind.
Experienced political hands will tell you that endorsement of the eventual winner is more viable than political posturing. Than continuing to run when you very well know that you have lost the race.
Bottom line is, some candidates by now know that they really have no sizable support base and stand no realistic chance of wining. For these, our advice is that, it’s time to cut your loses. Weather at local government, National Assembly or presidential level, its time to for once act in an efficient manner.
Whatever the case, most of our ordinary citizens who are independent observers, voters and in some way sympathizers of specific candidates or political parties are also getting the drift. They know deep down in their hearts the direction that this election will go and which way they will vote.
As an experienced and initiated democracy, Zambia has navigated through the 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 general elections with two presidential bye elections in 2008 and 2015. There are clear discernible patterns that have been established.
From this experience, It’s suffice to say that some of the candidates or political parties are merely being stubborn to accept the inevitable verdict to come. Even their loyalist are remaining mostly because of personal ties while others for their financial survival or reasons.
This is perhaps why you will note that the more experienced political hands have rather backed off the race and endorsed one of the top two contenders.
Elections by their very nature are a very divisive process especially for our humble citizens most of whom are simply weeped or shepherded into supporting one or the other candidates or political parties.
Others have also been made to support candidate because of their habitat location, the region’s they call home. And this is what makes politics a dirty game. It’s never about meritocracy, but more of capturing minds, traditions and taking advantage of the human instinct that seeks belonging.
As we are now in the last 30 days, voting blocks and boundaries will start to clearly be drawn. Politicians will open up memories of historical wounds and mistrust between citizens, between cultures and regions.
Geographic, demographic, cultural, social and any other sphere of differences of our ordinary citizens will be elevated such that, in the end, historical voting patterns will emerge.
You see, politics is and has always been a dirty game. You and I may not agree with how it plays out but it’s very nature even in more developed western economies leaves much to be desired.
In these elections, due to Covid, the Electoral Commission of Zambia – ECZ has restricted road shows. Remember, if we were to rank which modes of campaign is more effective, rallies were historically the main form of political mobilization followed by road shows and then direct approach such as door to door.
In these elections, the two most utilized platforms for political mobilization which are rallies and road shows are out of the play book. The terrain has been fundamentally altered.
Of course, this is necessary when you look at the raging COVID pandemic. Only those living on isolated homesteads can dispute the need to ban super spreader events. On our part, we can confess that this third wave is more devastating and real as close relatives and friends have either tested positive or succumbed to this virus.
So, forget about the argument that there is no COVID or that it’s politics, it’s real and raging right now. The cold season has also not helped matters as hospitals and clinics are now overwhelmed.
Now, the real political question of today is who is more astute between the ruling Patriotic Front – PF and their main rival the opposition United Party for National Development – UPND, the two main official options available for campaigns i.e on door to door mobilization and digital/Facebook activation?
Is digital/Facebook activation more powerful than door to door engagement to get out the votes? Will voter turn out be the key deciding factor for these elections? Will voting patterns or voting blocks repeat themselves and tilt the balance of power due to the arrogance of numbers in this contest?
All we can say for now is the patterns are slowly but surely emerging…
