The Zambia Statistical Agency –ZAMSTSATS- has defended what some experienced experts have described as “lower than actual” inflation numbers stating that the agency at all times upholds high standards in its production of statistics strictly guided by international guidelines.
Independent economic and business experts have expressed doubt and concern over the ‘lower than expected’ inflationary figures and exclusively told the Zambian Business Times –ZBT- that the inflation figures were much higher than what the agency is reporting.
An independent and experienced economist had challenged the government’s official statistics agency to start releasing realistic inflation statistics relevant to the general Zambian citizenry.
Other concerned stakeholders had also expressed concerns that the ZAMSTATS inflation rate of 12.6 as of October 2023 did not reflect the true picture of what is on the ground, adding that Zambia’s inflation is hovering around 20 to 30 percent if the key consumer products and obtaining prices on the ground are considered.
Some ZBT readers also concurred that the official rate of 12.6% for October 2023 was rather low compared to what is obtaining on the ground. It’s not clear if base effects may also be at play.
However, ZAMSTATS Statistician General Mulenga Musepa has responded stating that the production of statistics is strictly guided by international guidelines in conformity to the Statistics Act No. 13 of 2018 which among others provides for the agency to give effect to the UN fundamental principles of official statistics and principles of the African Charter on Statistics.
Musepa said the production of statistics such as inflation (CPI) is guided by the manual developed by the International Labor Organization –ILO, International Monetary Fund –IMF, and the World Bank among others.
He further mentioned that the production of inflation like all other statistics is undertaken by well trained and experienced statisticians that undergo regular capacity development. He said the methodology is regularly reviewed with partners such as ILO. IMF, UNSD among others, and that the items in the basket are classified using an international classification called Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP).
Musepa disclosed that price data of all 448 goods and services in the basket is collected every month from the 1st to the 10th in all the 116 districts of the 10 provinces with over 23 thousand quotations. He said the goods and services considered are the most or commonly purchased and consumed.
Musepa has therefore dispelled inflation figures attributed to unofficial sources as misleading and has called on the public to rely on official numbers produced and published by the agency.
