Economist Notulu Salwindi has expressed skepticism about achieving the 6.6 percent Gross Domestic Product – GDP growth rate for the 2025 budget citing the severe impact of drought on the economy.
The Minister of Finance and National Planning, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, announced a 6.6% GDP growth rate projection in the 2025 National budget.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with the Zambian Business Times (ZBT) Economist Notulu Salwindi said the damage caused by drought and the extended loadshedding requires significant recovery efforts, which will likely spill over into 2025.
“The economy is currently in recession, and next year should focus on recovery, not assuming a boom,” emphasized Salwindi.
Salwindi however predicted a minimal level of growth, contingent upon adequate rainfall.
To achieve this, he recommends measures to support recovery, rather than assuming a boom.
“The damage that has been done requires a lot of recovery, whether you are looking at household level or Company level everyone now is incurring costs if we are being honest, meaning there will be some borrowing that will be done, if you are not borrowing it means you are depleting on your savings, meaning next year either you replenish your savings or paying back debt that you acquired this year because you are trying to survive,” he observed.
However, Salwindi projected that the GDP is likely to attain a minimal level of growth but within the conditions of adequate rainfall.
“In other words, right now, we are under a recession, so next year we are trying to recover we don’t want to go into depression, everything in 2025 should be a recovery process and not where we are assuming. we are coming from a boom where all things where rosy, if people are recovering from a shock now what measures are you putting in place to ensure that they are being assisted in their recovery?” he questioned.
